Two days ago, a targeted strike killed Hamas’s deputy politburo head Saleh al-Arouri, along with six other operatives, in a Hizballah-dominated area of Beirut. Israel seems to have deliberately avoided eliminating any members of Hizballah, with which Arouri had a close relationship. Hanin Ghaddar and Matthew Levitt explain Arouri’s significance, and how Hizballah might react:
[E]ven as Hizballah will need to respond to the Israeli strike—both to preserve its “resistance” image and its sense of honor—it will likely do so in a way that falls short of full-scale war. This is in part because Iran does not wish to sacrifice Hizballah, its top regional asset, for the sake of Hamas. . . . Hizballah has already sustained serious damage in this war, and limiting further harm will remain a priority for various reasons.
Even if Hizballah does not seek a larger war, this prospect cannot be discounted, either by accident or design. Hizballah knows that Israel will not tolerate the risk posed by precision missiles or [its elite] Radwan forces along its border after the brutality of the October 7 Hamas attack. Yet Hizballah, in truth, is not ready for such a war. Most of its forces consist of younger personnel who have no experience fighting Israel. The group’s budget has been degraded by U.S. anti-Iran sanctions and its own expanded regional operations, having spent major assets in the Syrian war. And it lacks a signature leader in the mold of the late Imad Mughniyeh, who was killed in 2008.
Saleh al-Arouri’s death is a significant loss for Hamas. He played a critical role as one of the group’s primary and most effective liaisons to both Hizballah and Iran, meeting regularly in Beirut and from time to time in Tehran [with their officials]. The loss of someone so intimately involved in both tactical operations and strategic diplomacy is a serious setback for Hamas.
Read more on Washington Institute for Near East Policy: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/hamas-leader-dies-beirut