Like Luttwak, Michael Doran believes Washington will give Jerusalem the space to continue pursuing its war against Hamas. But he’s more concerned about the challenge on Israel’s northern front, where Hizballah—far more formidable than its Gazan ally—could at any moment launch a devastating attack on Israel.
The war against Hamas will . . . drag on for many more months, possibly years. The outcome, however, is foreordained: Israel will win, and Hamas will lose. The inevitability of victory makes the American pressure easier for Israelis to accept.
By contrast, American pressure in the north is impossible for Jerusalem to stomach. Israeli officials have repeatedly stated that the war will not end until Hizballah’s forces are driven back from the border and evacuated Israeli civilians have returned to their homes and businesses. The Biden administration, for its part, is strongly opposed to any escalation of the conflict that would give Israel a reasonable chance of success.
The source of this opposition is not difficult to glean. An Israeli escalation in Lebanon would destroy the Biden administration’s effort to reach a modus vivendi with Iran, the centerpiece of its Middle East strategy. . . . The biggest fight between Washington and Jerusalem is therefore yet to come.
At the link below, you can also find important observations from Can Kasapoğlu and Jonathan Schachter.
Read more on Hudson Institute: https://www.hudson.org/defense-strategy/three-things-about-israel-hamas-war-michael-doran-can-kasapoglu-jonathan-schachter-january-25-2024