If the ICJ verdict is a tactical success in the midst of a strategic defeat, a recent warning to the Jewish state from an anonymous senior Emirati official is the reverse. The official told a journalist on Wednesday that if the Gaza War drags on, relations between Jerusalem and Dubai could devolve into a “cold peace.” (To recall what that would mean, look no further than Jordan, whose security concerns are deeply tied up with Israel’s and where a restaurant recently opened with the name “October 7.” The name was taken off the establishment after photographs drew Western attention.) The warmth of the peace with the UAE has so far distinguished it from previous treaties with Arab states.
Yet the fact that this warning is off the record, and its implication that severing relations isn’t up for consideration, point to the durability of Israel’s new regional alliances. Edward Luttwak argues that, both in the Middle East and beyond, Jerusalem is winning the diplomatic war:
Before launching its [1967] pre-emptive attack, only France had been willing to sell weapons to Israel, but Charles de Gaulle stopped all further sales as soon as the fighting started. In Rome, meanwhile, a cargo of gas masks headed for Tel Aviv was intercepted at the airport, even though Egypt’s occupying force had recently killed many in Yemen with phosgene and mustard gas.
This time, 50 years later, it has all been very different. The U.S., UK, and European Union did not try to stop the Israeli counteroffensive against Hamas. The U.S. found itself unimpeded in sending military supplies, while the Italian government came out in full support of Israel.
The necessary ceasefire prelude to every post-war plan is still being held up by Hamas, which demands full control of the entire Gaza Strip, as if it had just won a war. So long as it persists, the Israeli army can continue its war—knowing that, this time, its days of isolation are over.
Read more on UnHerd: https://unherd.com/2024/01/israel-is-still-winning-the-political-war