According to four anonymous American sources recently cited by Politico, the White House will weigh limits on military aid to the Jewish state if it commences its ground assault on Rafah, the city at the southern tip of the Gaza Strip where Hamas’s leaders, and the bulk of their forces, are now ensconced. While it is always unclear how to interpret such warnings, the military necessity of an attack on the terrorist group’s stronghold is perfectly clear. Jacob Stoil and John Spencer explain why by looking at the lessons Hamas learned from the previous ceasefire:
In the offensive in northern Gaza, the IDF achieved operational surprise and performed well on the battlefield. As a result, Hamas’s defenses did not hold as well as it hoped, so Hamas embraced a temporary ceasefire and returned almost half the hostages. During that ceasefire, Hamas evacuated the remaining hostages and much of their leadership to hide among the concentration of civilians in the remaining uncleared areas of Gaza, such as Rafah.
In the meantime, pressure at home and the suffering of Gazans led the United States to put pressure on Israel to change operations during the fighting in Khan Younis, in southern Gaza, by employing a much lighter force package. For the first time, Hamas could see a way forward.
If the United States could be made uncomfortable enough with the continuing of the war against Hamas, then it would put more pressure on Israel to wind down operations.
Ultimately, Hamas’s strategy and unwillingness to negotiate is entirely dependent on the United States acting as Hamas wants—an outcome that looks increasingly likely. . . . In other words, while the road to a lasting ceasefire in Gaza may run through Rafah, its first stop is in Washington.
Read more on Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/road-ceasefire-leads-through-rafah-offensive-opinion-1878137