Ron Ben-Yishai examines the two “vectors” that will determine how Israel will retaliate:
One vector is the need to deter Iran. The ayatollahs did what they’ve never done before: deliberately attacked Israel, aiming to cause significant damage and undermine its citizens’ security. If Israel fails to respond to this attack aggressively, the ayatollahs and their allies in [what they call] the Axis of Resistance—as well as regional countries willing to normalize their relations with Israel—may see it as a weakness.
Israel also has an interest in threatening the survival of Tehran’s regime by exposing its weakness. But this is where the influence of the second vector comes into play, which is no less important and is perhaps even more so: the aggressive demand by the United States, the UK, France, Germany, and Canada that Israel refrain from a disproportionate response that could endanger the region’s stability. Such a regional war would also serve Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza.
Therefore, Israel has an interest in responding to the Western demand and returning to focus on the wars in Gaza and the northern border, leaving the schooling of Iran for another opportunity. In any case, response and revenge are dishes best served cold. It’s better to plan them well to ensure their effectiveness, even if it takes time and is done covertly.
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