Yesterday, Israeli soldiers had their leave canceled and GPS was scrambled in much of the country, both signs that the government fears a major Iranian attack could be imminent. And that is a reminder that the war Israel is fighting goes far beyond Gaza—and even beyond Lebanon. Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh fear that, despite its many tactical successes, Israel isn’t winning on the strategic level. One reason for that might be that it is ultimately relying on the U.S. to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons:
Americans and Israelis have for decades shied away from militarily punishing the mullahs for their malevolence. This hesitancy—an unwillingness to escalate—has fed an Islamist appetite for violence. But diplomacy and its euphemisms, sanctions, and whack-a-mole retaliatory strikes have run their course. And what Jerusalem is doing right now—beating back Iran’s proxies—will become a lot dicier once Tehran goes nuclear. Jerusalem might be obliged to accept as permanent a low-level, bloody duel with Iranian proxies.
We are way past time pretending that any other avenue than military action against Iran has a chance of checking an Islamist nuclear-threshold state that is close to dominating the Middle East. The Biden administration’s preferred path—encouraging regime change in Israel, pining for a two-state solution, and importuning the Saudi crown prince to recognize Israel (while granting more sanctions relief to Iran and quietly sending emissaries to Oman)—is guaranteed to make a bad situation worse. As everyone in the Middle East knows, and as the Israelis momentarily forgot before October 7, hard power is the only coin of the realm.
Read more on Free Press: https://www.thefp.com/p/iran-is-winning-the-war