If Israel were to take dramatic action against its nuclear program, Iran would likely retaliate by unleashing the full strength of Hizballah and its vast arsenal of rockets and drones. But if Iran obtains nuclear weapons, it can use them to deter any Israeli attempt to destroy Hizballah. The Lebanon-based terrorist group has already succeeded in driving thousands of Israelis from their homes, and just yesterday launched 45 rockets into the Western Galilee. To prevent a major conflict, France and the U.S. have been engaged in frantic diplomatic activity, but their proposals seem unlikely to bring about anything like lasting calm. David Daoud and Jonathan Schanzer write that

the international community’s fixation on futile deals has only whetted Hizballah’s appetite for violence. The group sees the desperation to prevent a wider war. Its leaders note with glee how Israel has been restrained by the Biden administration. Their belief—mistaken and dangerous—is that Israel’s hands are tied by the White House.

The Biden administration’s baseless signals of public displeasure with Jerusalem are undeniably seen by Hizballah as a constraint on Israeli freedom of action. They are also treated as a green light for Hizballah’s provocations. Washington’s decision to pause weapons shipments to Israel surely encouraged Hizballah’s latest and most dangerous escalation. The group’s attacks suddenly became more destructive, reaching deeper into Israel.

Between the explosion of thousands of Hizballah pagers on September 17 and now, Iran’s geopolitical clout has shrunk dramatically: Hizballah, Iran’s most important striking force, has retreated to lick its wounds; Iranian influence in Syria has collapsed; Iran’s attempts to attack Israel via Gaza have proved self-defeating; its missile and drone arsenal have proved impotent; and its territorial defenses have proved useless in the face of Israeli airpower. Edward Luttwak considers what might happen next:

The myth of Iranian power was ironically propagated by the United States itself. Right at the start of his first term, in January 2009, Barack Obama was terrified that he would be maneuvered into fighting a war against Iran. . . . Obama started his tenure by apologizing for America’s erstwhile support for the shah. And beyond showing contrition for the past, the then-president also set a new rule, one that lasted all the way to October 2024: Iran may attack anyone, but none may attack Iran.

[Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s] variegated fighters, in light trucks and jeeps, could have been stopped by a few hundred well-trained soldiers. But neither Hizballah nor Iran’s own Revolutionary Guards could react. Hizballah no longer has any large units capable of crossing the border to fight rebels in Syria, as they had done so many times before. As for the Revolutionary Guards, they were commandeering civilian airliners to fly troops into Damascus airport to support Assad. But then Israel made clear that it would not allow Iran’s troops so close to its border, and Iran no longer had credible counter-threats.

Now Iran’s population is discovering that it has spent decades in poverty to pay for the massive build-up of the Revolutionary Guards and all their militias. And for what? They have elaborate bases and showy headquarters, but their expensive ballistic missiles can only be used against defenseless Arabs, not Israel with its Arrow interceptors. As for Hizballah, clearly it cannot even defend itself, let alone Iran’s remaining allies in the region. Perhaps, in short, the dictatorship will finally be challenged in the streets of Iran’s cities, at scale and in earnest.