In an article in a recent issue of the journal Foreign Affairs, the retired American general David Petraeus contends that Israel’s current strategy in Gaza is wrongheaded. Instead, he argues, the IDF should adopt the counterinsurgency strategies (COIN in military jargon) that he employed so effectively to suppress the Iraqi insurgency between 2007 and 2010. Will Selber and Bill Roggio disagree:
There are numerous problems with this argument, chief among them that the IDF is not fighting an insurgency. Instead, it’s fighting a terror state. Hamas is the state. [Its members] are not insurgents. While Hamas may employ guerrilla-warfare tactics, so did the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The IDF would be fighting an insurgency if Hamas were trying to topple a government in Gaza. But that’s not what’s going on here. Yes, Hamas is a terrorist organization. However, they do not solely operate clandestinely because they are the de-facto state in Gaza. They field a terror army consisting of over twenty light infantry battalions.
Moreover, crucial to counterinsurgency is building trust with friendly locals, trust that is strengthened by fighting side by side:
Which group inside of Gaza could partner with the IDF like this and still survive? . . . The Palestinian Authority is still incapable of securing the West Bank. How would they secure Gaza working shoulder-by-shoulder with the IDF? [But] let’s play along, pretending that somehow the IDF could find a partner force. How long would it take to clear, hold, and build? A year? Maybe two? Wouldn’t the international community claim that Israel is occupying Gaza? Even Petraeus admits that this would require an Israeli occupation of Gaza.
While the IDF has yet to achieve its war aims and the overall success of its operation in Gaza remains in doubt, following in America’s footsteps in both Iraq and Afghanistan would be a cataclysmic mistake. We lost both wars. Israel cannot afford to lose this one.
More about: Afghanistan, Gaza War 2023, IDF, Iraq, Iraq war