A successful large-scale Iranian attack on Israel of the kind that would require a decisive response from Jerusalem would certainly constitute a significant escalation of the current war. And judging from the social-media feeds of former diplomats and the headlines of CNN, the New York Times, and other outlets, that should be everyone’s biggest fear. This also seems to be the view of the Biden administration, which is constantly urging restraint and sending diplomats to deescalate tensions. Efraim Inbar examines the flaws of such thinking:
In many situations, climbing the escalation ladder is probably the best way to put an end to violence. Indeed, the Hamas raids and atrocities are a direct result of the containment policy conducted for years by Israel. Instead of escalating and exacting a high price from Hamas to change its strategic calculus, Israel preferred to absorb many rocket attacks and refrained from a strong riposte that could lead to escalation. This only gave time to Hamas to build its military capabilities and acquire the might to withstand an Israeli offensive now in its tenth month.
Similarly, Israel’s reluctance to preempt in Lebanon allowed Hizballah to build a formidable missile arsenal. This organization grew to become a monster that since October 8 has conducted, undeterred, a war of attrition against Israel. Attrition warfare is the best outcome for the population-centric Iranian strategy and the worst possible scenario for Israel. . . . Only escalation intended to eliminate the missile arsenal can put an end to the war of attrition.
War against Hizballah is inevitable; Israel might have to wait for more hospitable circumstances, but they will come.
Read more on Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security: https://jiss.org.il/en/inbar-the-wests-fear-of-escalation-is-not-helpful/