Yesterday, Israel was attacked by Hizballah drones in the north (injuring two civilians), as well as rocket fire from Gaza. Yet Israelis, along with the Pentagon, expect that these are just a prelude to the larger and more dramatic assault Iran is planning. Among the various groups likely participating in such an attack would be the network of Iran-backed Shiite militias operating in Iraq. These same militias fired two rockets at a U.S. base in western Iraq on Monday, injuring seven Americans. Yaron Schneider takes a close look at these groups:

Since early November 2023, . . . Iraqi militias have claimed responsibility for more than 100 missile and drone launches targeting Israeli targets and have carried out some 200 strikes against bases in Iraq and Syria where both U.S. forces and those of the international coalition against Islamic State are stationed. The attacks against U.S. targets have declined considerably after an incident in late January 2024, in which three U.S. soldiers were killed by a drone at a base in Jordan.

Another development that poses a high security risk for Israel is the efforts of Iraqi militias to infiltrate into Jordan to carry out cross-border terrorist acts into Israeli territory. This is in addition to, and possibly part of, attempts by Iran and its agents to smuggle arms through Jordan and provide assistance to Palestinian terrorist organizations in the war against Israel.

[An] analysis of current trends shows that the attacks from Iraq since the beginning of the war have been on the rise, as has the severity of the threats from the Iraqi militias with Iranian encouragement. Even if Israel is currently focused on the main fronts in the south and north, it should prepare to deal with all these scenarios, including working together with the United States and its allies in the region, as part of the regional confrontation against Iran.

Yesterday, the beepers used by hundreds of Hizballah operatives were detonated. Noah Rothman puts this ingenious attack in the context of the overall war between Israel and the Iran-backed terrorist group:

[W]hile the disabling of an untold number of Hizballah operatives is remarkable, it’s also ominous. This week, the Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant told reporters that the hour is nearing when Israeli forces will have to confront Iran’s cat’s-paw in southern Lebanon directly, in order to return the tens of thousands of Israelis who fled their homes along Lebanon’s border under fire and have not yet been able to return. Today’s operation may be a prelude to the next phase of Israel’s defensive war, a dangerous one in which the IDF will face off against an enemy with tens of thousands of fighters and over 150,000 rockets and missiles trained on Israeli cities.

Seth Frantzman, meanwhile, focuses on the specific damage the pager bombings have likely done to Hizballah:

This will put the men in hospital for a period of time. Some of them can go back to serving Hizballah, but they will not have access to one of their hands. These will most likely be their dominant hand, meaning the hand they’d also use to hold the trigger of a rifle or push the button to launch a missile.

Hizballah has already lost around 450 fighters in its eleven-month confrontation with Israel. This is a significant loss for the group. While Hizballah can replace losses, it doesn’t have an endlessly deep [supply of recruits]. This is not only because it has to invest in training and security ahead of recruitment, but also because it draws its recruits from a narrow spectrum of Lebanese society.

The overall challenge for Hizballah is not just replacing wounded and dead fighters. The group will be challenged to . . . roll out some other way to communicate with its men. The use of pagers may seem archaic, but Hizballah apparently chose to use this system because it assumed the network could not be penetrated. . . . It will also now be concerned about the penetration of its operational security. When groups like Hizballah are in chaos, they are more vulnerable to making mistakes.