The vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance has repeatedly expressed his concern with America’s declining birthrates, and advocated such policies as having the government cover the costs of delivery and perinatal care. In Israel, which leads the developed world in fertility, state-subsidized insurance indeed covers all such costs, and parents receive many other generous government benefits. But, writes, Daniel Kane, these are unlikely to be the reason for the country’s demographic miracle:

Over the last several decades, many nations have tried to promote childbearing by replicating Israeli levels of financial support for families, and none has succeeded. In fact, spending on family benefits in most [industrialized, high-income] countries exceeds that of Israel (as a percentage of GDP) without having prevented those nations’ downward fertility spirals. There are, it should be noted, a few important exceptions to that trend. . . . Nevertheless, to date, no amount of government spending anywhere in the world has successfully restored sub-replacement birthrates to replacement levels.

Likewise, religion cannot serve as straightforward explanation, since secular Israelis also have higher-than-expected birthrates. Kane looks instead to practices that are widespread in Israeli society and that reflect both religious tradition and a sense of national belonging:

The most striking example of this phenomenon is Shabbat. . . . [T]he locus of Shabbat observance is as much the home as the synagogue: it is a day without work, without TV and Internet, when families gather, bless their children, and spend undistracted time singing, eating, and talking together.

Astoundingly, more than 70 percent of Israeli Jews report celebrating Shabbat with a Friday evening meal each week. Most include at least one element of traditional religious observance as part of the meal: the parents’ blessing of the children, the mothers’ lighting of the “Shabbat candles,” or the fathers’ blessing over the wine. Just as importantly, the general expectation is that unmarried adult children return home for Shabbat to be with their parents and siblings.

Perhaps, writes Kane, the real explanatory factor isn’t so much religion per se but the fact that Israelis’ “individual identities are deeply rooted in a transtemporal sense of national belonging,” leading them to “feel remarkably connected to their collective past and invested in their shared future.”

Yesterday I saw an unconfirmed report that the Biden administration has offered Israel a massive arms deal in exchange for a promise not to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Even if the report is incorrect, there is plenty of other evidence that the White House has been trying to dissuade Jerusalem from mounting such an attack. The thinking behind this pressure is hard to fathom, as there is little Israel could do that would better serve American interests in the Middle East than putting some distance between the ayatollahs and nuclear weapons. Aaron MacLean explains why this is so, in the context of a broader discussion of strategic priorities in the Middle East and elsewhere:

If the Iran issue were satisfactorily adjusted in the direction of the American interest, the question of Israel’s security would become more manageable overnight. If a network of American partners enjoyed security against state predation, the proactive suppression of militarily less serious threats like Islamic State would be more easily organized—and indeed, such partners would be less vulnerable to the manipulation of powers external to the region.

[The Biden administration’s] commitment to escalation avoidance has had the odd effect of making the security situation in the region look a great deal as it would if America had actually withdrawn [from the Middle East].

Alternatively, we could project competence by effectively backing our Middle East partners in their competitions against their enemies, who are also our enemies, by ensuring a favorable overall balance of power in the region by means of our partnership network, and by preventing Iran from achieving nuclear status—even if it courts escalation with Iran in the shorter run.