Since Israel’s October 26 attack, Iran has been threatening retaliation, and recent reports suggesting it will strike soon, and may use deadlier weapons than the last, have led Israelis to restock their bomb shelters. Noah Rothman asks why Jerusalem isn’t considering a preemptive strike, especially if it has intelligence that something more than Iranian bluster is afoot:
If publicly available estimates of the damage Iran incurred as a result of Israel’s October 26 strikes are accurate, Iran has never been more vulnerable. Its radar and air-defense systems have been degraded substantially. . . . If Iran is planning to up the ante and conduct another multi-pronged attack on Israeli targets—and Israeli intelligence is confident that such an attack is imminent—Jerusalem is well within its rights to interdict that event preemptively.
One possibility, Rothman suggests, is that Tehran hasn’t yet made a firm decision as it is waiting for the results of the American elections “with bated breath.” But that fact only sharpens the question:
Israel is not obliged to wait around for an inevitable attack. It should see to its interests promptly and without regard for the composition of the American administration.
More about: 2024 Election, Iran, Israeli Security