After Yahya Sinwar’s death on October 16, many hoped the war in the Gaza would soon wind down. Instead, it intensified, although there have been reports of Hamas fighters surrendering to the IDF more frequently and in larger numbers. Gabi Siboni explains how the battered terrorist group holds on to control in much of the Strip, and what must be done to oust it definitively:

One may ask why Hamas is still able to rebuild despite ongoing, effective IDF operations targeting its leadership and military power. The answer is simple: Hamas controls the distribution of humanitarian aid in Gaza. It seizes and redirects incoming aid trucks to areas under its control, then allocates the aid in two ways. First, it sells part of the aid to Gaza residents at exorbitant prices to replenish its cash reserves, depleted by IDF actions targeting its finances and blocking money inflows. Second, Hamas uses humanitarian aid as a tool to recruit new members, promising a steady food supply to them and their families.

Through these actions, Hamas sends a clear message to the population about its intention to stay in power, signaling that cooperation with the organization is in their best interest. Control of food distribution solidifies Hamas’s rule over the population and allows it to replenish its ranks. This reality prolongs the war and hinders Israel’s ability to achieve its war objectives in Gaza.

Ensuring humanitarian aid reaches Gaza’s population without interference from Hamas requires Israeli control over the territory, signaling to the population that Hamas’s era in Gaza is over with no return. . . . Removing Hamas’s governance necessitates that the IDF directly oversee humanitarian aid distribution, essentially establishing a temporary military administration in areas under Israeli security control.

Steve Witkoff, the American special envoy leading negotiations with the Islamic Republic, has sent mixed signals about his intentions, some of them recently contradicted by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Michael Doran looks at the progress of the talks so far, and explains why he fears that they could result in an even worse version of the 2015 deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA):

This new deal will preserve Iran’s latent nuclear weapons capabilities—centrifuges, scientific expertise, and unmonitored sites—that will facilitate a simple reconstitution in the future. These capabilities are far more potent today than they were in 2015, with Iran’s advances making them easier to reactivate, a significant step back from the JCPOA’s constraints.

In return, President Trump would offer sanctions relief, delivering countless billions of dollars to Iranian coffers. Iran, in the meantime, will benefit from the permanent erasure of JCPOA snapback sanctions, set to expire in October 2025, reducing U.S. leverage further. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps will use the revenues to support its regional proxies, such as Hizballah, Hamas, and the Houthis, whom it will arm with missiles and drones that will not be restricted by the deal.

Worse still, Israel will not be able to take action to stop Iran from producing nuclear weapons:

A unilateral military strike . . . is unlikely without Trump’s backing, as Israel needs U.S. aircraft and missile defenses to counter Iran’s retaliation with drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles—a counterattack Israel cannot fend off alone.

By defanging Iran’s proxies and destroying its defenses, Israel stripped Tehran naked, creating a historic opportunity to end forever the threat of its nuclear weapons program. But Tehran’s weakness also convinced it to enter the kind of negotiations at which it excels. Israel’s battlefield victories, therefore, facilitated a deal that will place Iran’s nuclear program under an undeclared but very real American protective shield.