Iran’s collapse in Syria was largely engineered by Turkey, and it is Turkey above all that stands poised to fill the vacuum left by a declining Iran. But while Ankara owes some of its recent success to Jerusalem, and Jerusalem has benefited from Ankara’s recent actions, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains unrelentingly hostile to the Jewish state and supportive of Hamas. He also poses a difficulty to America: attacking Washington’s Kurdish allies, playing both sides of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and coddling jihadists—all while his country remains a NATO member. Joseph Epstein examines the state of U.S.-Turkish relations since October 7, 2023, and speculates about the future:
Erdoğan seems to be pleased with the election of Donald Trump, immediately inviting him to Turkey in hopes of resetting relations with Washington. Despite Trump’s ardent support for Israel, Erdoğan has expressed hope that Trump would pressure Israel into ending the war as promised during his campaign. But considering Trump’s pro-Israel past and many pro-Israel appointments, it is unlikely he would do so at the expense of Israeli interests.
Additionally, Trump will have more leverage over Turkey than he had during his first term. The Turkish economy is a shadow of itself and the lira has been dealing with hyperinflation since 2018 (the current rate to date is 48.58 percent). In fact, the lira has depreciated so much that ATMs are breaking under the weight of increasingly worthless banknotes. Regional isolation leading to economic collapse is what spurred Erdoğan’s charm offensive in 2021 and 2022, when he tried to repair relations with Israel and the Gulf States.
Considering Trump’s [successful] use of economic punishments in the past, there is no reason to think he would not resort to similar tactics in his second term.
Read more on Dayan Center: https://dayan.org/content/examining-us-turkish-relations-post-october-7th