As of this writing, Hamas has not yet released the names of the four hostages it is expected to turn over to the Red Cross tomorrow, but is expected to give Israel their names today. In return, Israel will likely release 180 Palestinian prisoners, of whom at least half will be convicted terrorists serving life sentences—although the details depend on which hostages are released.

“I hate the deal,” says the former American ambassador to Israel David Friedman, but “I’m not opposed to the deal.” This paradoxical position likely sums up how most Israelis see the agreement. In this video, Friedman explains his thinking in conversation with Elliott Abrams, who has shaped Middle East policy under several presidents. The discussion, moderated by Mosaic’s editor Jonathan Silver, examines the meaning of the cease-fire, the future of Gaza, and the fate of the West Bank. (Video, 62 minutes.)

Ron Ben-Yishai, reporting from a visit to IDF forces in the Gaza Strip, analyzes the state of the fighting, and “the persistent challenge of eradicating an entrenched enemy in a complex urban terrain.”

Hamas, sensing the war’s end, is mounting a final effort to inflict casualties. The IDF now controls 65 percent of Gaza’s territory operationally, with observation, fire dominance, and relative freedom of movement, alongside systematic tunnel destruction. . . . Major P, a reserve company commander, says, “It’s frustrating to hear at home that we’re stagnating. The public doesn’t get that if we stop, Hamas will recover.”

Senior IDF officers cite two reasons for the slow progress: meticulous care to protect hostages, requiring cautious movement and constant intelligence gathering, and avoiding heavy losses, with 22 soldiers killed since June.

Two-and-a-half of Hamas’s five brigades have been dismantled, yet a new hostage deal and IDF withdrawal could allow Hamas to regroup. . . . Hamas is at its lowest military and governing point since its founding, reduced to a fragmented guerrilla force. Yet, without complete disarmament and infrastructure destruction, it could resurge as a threat in years.

At the same time, Ben-Yishai observes, not everything hangs on the IDF:

According to the Southern Command chief Major General Yaron Finkelman, the IDF is close to completing its objectives. In classical military terms, “defeat” means the enemy surrenders—but with a jihadist organization, the benchmark is its ability to operate against Israel.

Despite [the IDF’s] battlefield successes, the broader strategic outcome—especially regarding the hostages—now hinges on decisions from the political leadership. “We’ve done our part,” said a senior officer. “We’ve reached a crossroads where the government must decide where it wants to go—both on the hostage issue and on Gaza’s future.”