The Strategic Logic of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Hostage-Deal Gambit

Jan. 17 2025

For all these reasons, Israeli society is deeply divided over the current agreement. There has already been political fallout in Itamar Ben-Gvir’s pledge to take his far-right Otzmah Yehudit party out of the governing coalition. This won’t topple the government, but it does render it less stable.

Haviv Rettig Gur examines the domestic political causes and consequences of the agreement with Hamas, and concludes by looking at the broader strategic and diplomatic context:

Hamas understands this moment as well as Benjamin Netanyahu. It needed to obtain just enough from an agreement to be able to claim a victory, and then to adhere to whatever is obtained in order to deny Netanyahu the political cover with Donald Trump for a return to war.

Ironically, that’s a position of weakness for Hamas, and Netanyahu appears to have taken advantage of it—and so there are more hostages coming out, a slower Israeli redeployment, and no guarantees of an end to fighting.

Yet Hamas retains one great advantage over Netanyahu: its bar for “victory” is extremely low. It doesn’t need to win; it doesn’t need to rebuild its capabilities. It only needs to be able to claim it survived, even if what survived is a bare fragment of the original organization, now reduced to sending teenagers to fight, overseeing a ruined economy, and unable to rebuild Gaza. The simple fact that it still exists is “victory.”

In fact, Khalil al-Hayya, one of the Hamas’s seniormost officials outside of Gaza, gave a speech yesterday declaring victory and touting the “military accomplishment” of the October 7 attacks. Nonetheless, Gur writes, Jerusalem has plans of its own:

Israel will work ferociously to build out the kind of intelligence infiltration in Gaza that it possessed in Lebanon. It will spend the cease-fire preparing the offensive Netanyahu seems to believe will be permitted him at the end of phase 1 [of the deal]. If this is indeed Netanyahu’s calculation, then the deal he will soon sign is a reasonable gambit and a serious strategy.

Read more at Times of Israel

More about: Benjamin Netanyahu, Gaza War 2023, Israeli politics, Itamar Ben Gvir

Kuwait Should Be the Next Country to Make Peace with Israel

Feb. 13 2025

Like his predecessor, Donald Trump seeks to expand the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia. But there are other Arab nations that might consider taking such a step. Ahmad Charai points to Kuwait—home to the Middle East’s largest U.S. army base and desperately in need of economic reform—as a good candidate. Kuwaitis haven’t forgiven Palestinians for supporting Saddam Hussein during his 1990 invasion, but their country has been more rhetorically hostile to Israel than its Gulf neighbors:

The Abraham Accords have reshaped Middle Eastern diplomacy. . . . Kuwait, however, remains hesitant due to internal political resistance. While full normalization may not be immediately feasible, the United States should encourage Kuwait to take gradual steps toward engagement, emphasizing how participation in regional cooperation does not equate to abandoning its historical positions.

Kuwait could use its influence to push for peace in the Middle East through diplomatic channels opened by engagement rather than isolation. The economic benefits of joining the broader framework of the Abraham Accords are overwhelming. Israel’s leadership in technology, agriculture, and water management presents valuable opportunities for Kuwait to enhance its infrastructure. Trade and investment flows would diversify the economy, providing new markets and business partnerships.

Kuwaiti youth, who are increasingly looking for opportunities beyond the public sector, could benefit from collaboration with advanced industries, fostering job creation and entrepreneurial growth. The UAE and Bahrain have already demonstrated how normalization with Israel can drive economic expansion while maintaining their respective geopolitical identities.

Read more at Jerusalem Strategic Tribune

More about: Abraham Accords, Kuwait