When Jordan and Egypt were mentioned as possible destinations for refugees from Gaza—whether temporary or permanent—both countries objected strenuously. Dan Diker and Yoni Ben Menachem explain why:

Muslim Brotherhood-led protests have taken place in Jordan in support of Hamas in Gaza, threatening the stability of the monarchy. King Abdullah is deeply concerned about maintaining power. It is commonly understood and confirmed by Israeli security officials that Abdullah opposes any American initiative that could be perceived as harming Palestinian rights and interests in Gaza as well as the West Bank. Abdullah’s position is a reflection of the regime’s fragility and fears of self-preservation.

[Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah] el-Sisi faces a similar predicament. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt also poses a threat to regime stability. Both leaders are actively seeking ways to remove the plan from the U.S. Middle East agenda.

Egypt and Jordan, [however], rely heavily on annual U.S. economic and military aid. President Trump’s recent decision to cut off foreign aid to Jordan sends a powerful message to these countries and others in the region.

If there’s one lesson to be learned from the history of the Israel-Arab conflict, it’s never to be confident that an end is in sight. Ehud Yaari nevertheless—and with all due caution—points to some noteworthy developments:

The absolute primacy of “armed struggle” in Palestinian discourse has discouraged any serious attempt to discuss or plan for a future Palestinian state. Palestinian political literature is devoid of any substantial debate over what kind of a state they aspire to create. What would be its economic, foreign, and social policies?

One significant exception was a seminar held by Hamas in Gaza—under the auspices of the late Yahya Sinwar—prior to October 7, 2023. The main focus of what was described as a brainstorming session was the question of how to deal with the Jews in the land to be liberated. A broad consensus between the participants was reached that most Israeli Jews should be eradicated or expelled while those contributing to Israel’s success in high tech and other critical domains would be forced to serve the new Palestinian authorities.

Yet, the ongoing aftershocks from the ongoing war in Gaza are posing questions among Palestinians concerning the viability of armed struggle. So far this trend is reflected mainly in stormy exchanges on social-media platforms and internal controversies within Hamas. There is mounting criticism leveled at the late Mohammad Deif and Yahya Sinwar for embarking upon an uncoordinated offensive that is resulting in a “Second Nakba”—a repeat of the defeat and mass displacement caused by launching the war in 1948.

To be sure, “armed struggle” is still being preached daily to the Palestinian communities by Iran and Iranian proxies, and at least half the Palestinian public—according to various polls—believe it remains indispensable. But doubts are being heard. We may be reaching a point where the Palestinians will feel compelled to make a choice between the road which led to past failures and an attempt to chart a new route. It will certainly require time and is bound to cause fractures and divisions, perhaps even a violent split, among the Palestinians.