On its southern front, Israel remains in a holding pattern, unsure if U.S. mediation efforts will secure the release of hostages, and whether fighting will resume. Many Israelis, and many more in the West, worry that in the latter scenario the IDF won’t be able to accomplish what it couldn’t in the first fifteen months of the war. John Spencer is confident that Israel can win, and that if the fighting starts again conditions will be more favorable—but a shift in strategy will also be necessary. It’s worth considering what he writes in light of our recent series on Israel’s strategic challenges:
While still dangerous, Hamas lacks the centralized command structure, heavy weaponry, and defensive strongholds it once had.
To be sure, to defeat Hamas decisively, Israel will have to shift from its previous approach of raiding operations to a more methodical strategy. The IDF must fully seize and clear territory, rather than conducting short-term incursions. Notably, it was not until late 2024 that the IDF began systematically clearing portions of northern Gaza, an approach that will need to be extended to the entire Strip. Once Hamas is militarily neutralized, Israel must ensure that the group cannot reconstitute itself, as it has in past conflicts.
This will likely require a temporary occupation of Gaza by the IDF or another security force to provide stability and prevent a resurgence of Hamas. While politically complex, securing and governing Gaza post-Hamas is essential to ensuring that a new militant force does not simply take its place.
More about: Gaza War 2023, Hamas, IDF