On Tuesday, Israeli jets dropped some 40 bunker-buster bombs on a single site in Khan Younis. The tactic is used for hitting deep, heavily fortified tunnels; in this case, the IDF was targeting Mohammad Sinwar, the head of Hamas in Gaza, in one such subterranean lair. Although Israel still hasn’t confirmed Sinwar’s death, officials told reporters yesterday that they believe it’s likely that the strike succeeded in killing him, along with the longtime Hamas spokesman Hudhayfa Kahlout (better known as Abu Obaida) and the Rafah brigade command Mohammad Shabana. John Spencer assesses the strategic importance of eliminating these figures:

Mohammad Sinwar is not a symbolic target. He was one of the principal architects of Hamas’s war. . . . If his death is confirmed, it would represent the collapse of Hamas’s top Gaza-based leadership. Hamas is not an amorphous guerrilla force. It relies on centralized planning, subterranean communications, and an integrated command structure. Eliminating Sinwar would further fracture that system and disrupt Hamas’s ability to coordinate and adapt under pressure.

Still, wars are not won by removing names from a list. Wars are won when the enemy no longer retains the ability and will to pursue their strategy. . . . If Sinwar is dead, it would mark the end of Hamas’s operational leadership behind the October 7 massacre. But that does not yet equal victory.

What comes next is even more decisive: Israel is poised to launch a major ground campaign to clear fully and hold key areas of Gaza. This approach, if executed with sustained momentum, has the right strategic intent: not just to kill terrorists, but to destroy Hamas’s military and political power and deny it the ability to rebuild. That is how war is won.

Yesterday, the Iranian foreign minister flew to Geneva to meet with European diplomats. President Trump, meanwhile, indicated that cease-fire negotiations might soon begin with Iran, which would presumably involve Tehran agreeing to make concessions regarding its nuclear program, while Washington pressures Israel to halt its military activities. According to Israeli media, Iran already began putting out feelers to the U.S. earlier this week. Aviram Bellaishe considers the purpose of these overtures:

The regime’s request to return to negotiations stems from the principle of deception and delay that has guided it for decades. Iran wants to extricate itself from a situation of total destruction of its nuclear facilities. It understands that to save the nuclear program, it must stop at a point that would allow it to return to it in the shortest possible time. So long as the negotiation process leads to halting strikes on its military capabilities and preventing the destruction of the nuclear program, and enables the transfer of enriched uranium to a safe location, it can simultaneously create the two tracks in which it specializes—a false facade of negotiations alongside a hidden nuclear race.