The pending nuclear deal is premised on the claim that, were Iran to violate its terms, the U.S. would have the time and ability to detect and punish non-compliance before the Islamic Republic created a working bomb. But critics have pointed out that this claim is, at best, overly optimistic. Armin Rosen writes:
The one-year-breakout timeline is crucial to any future deal’s success. Based on the series of understandings announced in Lausanne, Switzerland, in April, the coming agreement doesn’t address Iran’s ballistic-missile arsenal, which is perhaps the largest and most developed of any state without nuclear weapons. Critics allege that the framework includes insufficient prohibitions on nuclear research and development, and that the anticipated accord may give Iran a pass on disclosing much of its past nuclear-weaponization activities.
[Furthermore, the] deal as currently envisioned wouldn’t require Iran to destroy or permanently close any of its [existing] nuclear infrastructure. Dismantled centrifuges could remain in storage inside of Iran, and all Iranian nuclear facilities—including previously undeclared installations like Fordow, a site built into a mountain inside of an Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps base—would be allowed to remain open. Most of the more onerous uranium-enrichment restrictions would be phased out ten years into a deal. And that’s on top of the lifting of most U.S. and international sanctions against Iran. . . .
Advocates of the deal argue that these trade-offs don’t preclude the accomplishment of its primary objective. Even with these concessions, Iran will supposedly remain far enough away from a nuclear-weapons capability that any movement toward weaponization could be detected and then either deterred, punished, or prevented.
This makes the accuracy of the one-year breakout estimate a crucial underlying assumption of a future deal. There will be troubling implications for the future of both the Middle East and global nuclear proliferation if it turns out to be wrong.
Read more on Business Insider: http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-deal-breakout-time-nuclear-weapon-2015-6