Michael Herzog explains why America’s approach to resolving the conflict in Syria is doomed to fail, and what the continuation of the war means for Israel:
The current diplomatic efforts are predicated on three key assumptions, all of which are flawed. First, that there is a visible horizon for putting Syria back together as one functioning political entity. Second, that a diplomatic solution is a prerequisite to defeating Islamic State (IS). Third, that the major stakeholders in Syria can currently agree on a common goal and implement it.
In reality . . . it is hard to see Syria reunified as one functioning political entity in the foreseeable future. Defeating IS is a prerequisite to a solution in Syria, (if there is one to be had), rather than the other way around, while the likelihood of currently securing an agreement that will be implemented by the stakeholders is very slim. Furthermore, while negotiating on how to extinguish the fire, some of the players, especially Russia, Iran, and the Gulf states, are fanning the flames since they understand that strength and position on the ground will dictate the political outcome. . . .
[For Israel], there is the challenge of hostile actors positioning themselves in the Golan Heights along Israel’s border with Syria and turning it into an active front with established military infrastructure and cross-border attacks. The al-Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front and some IS-affiliated elements such as the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade are already there, though currently focused on fighting Assad’s forces and their allies. Meanwhile the Iran-led axis has been striving, so far with little success, to establish itself along both the Israeli and Jordanian borders. . . . No less challenging for Israel is the shipment through Syria to Hizballah in Lebanon of strategic weapons . . . which could serve as game-changers in a future conflict with Israel.
Read more on Fathom: http://fathomjournal.org/the-syrian-cauldron-a-view-from-israel/