The Sunni-Shiite War, Pakistan, and Israel https://mosaicmagazine.com/picks/politics-current-affairs/2016/01/the-sunni-shiite-war-pakistan-and-israel/

January 26, 2016 | Yaakov Amidror
About the author: Yaakov Amidror is a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, and a Distinguish Fellow of JINSA’s  Gemunder Strategic Center, Washington DC. He served as national security advisor to the prime minister of Israel and the head of the National Security Council from 2011 to 2013.

Surveying the chaotic state of the Middle East, Yaakov Amidror sees an escalating conflict between Shiites, led by an Iran empowered by the lifting of U.S. sanctions, and Sunnis, led by a Saudi Arabia emboldened by the lack of American leadership. Further exacerbating the situation is Pakistan’s recent announcement that it would defend Saudi Arabia forcefully if the latter were attacked:

This declaration is of utmost importance, since [Pakistan] is the only Muslim country that has nuclear weapons. . . . . Thus far, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons have been [understood] as an element in the conflict between Pakistan and India, and now all of a sudden they’re [being threatened] in a Middle Eastern context, in a conflict between the Shiite superpower and the entity that wants to be perceived as its Sunni counterpart.

This is a real change in the balance of power throughout the entire Middle East. If Pakistan moves from a one-time declaration to actual intervention in these tussles, the regional balance of power will change. But past experience indicates that [Pakistan’s leaders] will be very careful about committing themselves.

What will be the ramifications of the intensifying conflict? First, it is quite clear that it will be much harder to deal with the war in Syria properly. That war is not just a civil war between different factions of Syrian society. It is a war between Shiites and Sunnis, with Iran standing behind one side and Saudi Arabia, the [other] Gulf states, and Turkey, to a certain extent, backing the other. . . .

The lesson Israel should learn from all these recent events is clear: Israel must not be drawn into such a complex and deep-running battle as the intra-Islamic conflict between Shiites and Sunnis, or [that] between the Arabs and Persians in the Gulf region. Israel must take care to safeguard its own interests, including taking risks if force must be exerted, but [only] after great consideration, without arrogance, and with precision.

Read more on BESA Center: http://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/shiites-vs-sunnis-a-region-at-war/