Last week, China and Iran agreed to create a joint commission to further military cooperation, making more public the Islamic Republic’s relationship with a country that has long supplied it with arms. Patrick Megahan and Behnam Taleblu write:

China has . . . equipped Iran with surface-to-air missiles, fighters, fast attack craft, and ballistic-missile equipment. Key among these technologies are guidance systems for Iran’s missiles, which [make up] the largest arsenal in the Middle East. China has even served as a transit point for North Korean missile technology en route to Iran.

Reports on the [specifics of the agreement] have thus far been vague, revealing only a stated interest in combatting terrorism and a promise to hold joint military drills. Still, the increasingly public nature of their cooperation should not come as a surprise. Both Iran and China . . . hope to supplant Washington as the preeminent military power of their respective regions. Moreover, Iran is now eyeing potential purchases for when a UN-mandated arms ban expires in 2020—or possibly earlier, per last summer’s nuclear deal. Admittedly, China is not the only country positioning itself to cash in on Iranian arms purchases. Over the last two years, Russia has stepped up its relationship with Tehran [as well]. . . .

In an era when U.S. military resources are already strained globally, agreements like this between Iran and China make it harder for Washington to defend its partners and deter aggression around the world. As a new administration prepares to take office, U.S. policy makers must prepare for the likelihood that an Iran no longer under arms embargo will capitalize on its . . . partnership with China.

Analyzing the recent direct Iranian attack on Israel, and Israel’s security situation more generally, Michael Oren looks to the 2015 agreement to restrain Iran’s nuclear program. That, and President Biden’s efforts to resurrect the deal after Donald Trump left it, are in his view the source of the current crisis:

Of the original motivations for the deal—blocking Iran’s path to the bomb and transforming Iran into a peaceful nation—neither remained. All Biden was left with was the ability to kick the can down the road and to uphold Barack Obama’s singular foreign-policy achievement.

In order to achieve that result, the administration has repeatedly refused to punish Iran for its malign actions:

Historians will survey this inexplicable record and wonder how the United States not only allowed Iran repeatedly to assault its citizens, soldiers, and allies but consistently rewarded it for doing so. They may well conclude that in a desperate effort to avoid getting dragged into a regional Middle Eastern war, the U.S. might well have precipitated one.

While America’s friends in the Middle East, especially Israel, have every reason to feel grateful for the vital assistance they received in intercepting Iran’s missile and drone onslaught, they might also ask what the U.S. can now do differently to deter Iran from further aggression. . . . Tehran will see this weekend’s direct attack on Israel as a victory—their own—for their ability to continue threatening Israel and destabilizing the Middle East with impunity.

Israel, of course, must respond differently. Our target cannot simply be the Iranian proxies that surround our country and that have waged war on us since October 7, but, as the Saudis call it, “the head of the snake.”