While in Saudi Arabia last Saturday, Saad Hariri abruptly announced his resignation as prime minister of Lebanon, citing Iranian meddling in his country’s affairs. Hariri came to office as a leader of anti-Iranian forces, but since then he had allowed Tehran’s proxy Hizballah—which assassinated his father—to expand its influence over Lebanon. Hanin Ghaddar explains the likely consequences:
[T]he fact that the resignation happened in Riyadh carries a regional dimension that could open Lebanon up to both the Iranian-Saudi conflict—which escalated this weekend after the Saudis intercepted a missile fired on Riyadh from Yemen and characterized it as an act of war by Iran—and U.S. efforts to contain Tehran’s ambitions in the Middle East. . . .
As for what happens next, one of several scenarios could unfold. Under the constitution, President Aoun is supposed to call for parliamentary consultations to pick the next premier. . . . [But Hizballah] does not have the necessary quorum in the current parliament to choose a new prime minister—in fact, no party does. Some fear that Hizballah will resort to assassinations in order to secure the quorum. Whatever happens, the interregnum will be thorny. . . .
These problems, coupled with the possibility of more forceful interference by Saudi Arabia and Iran, mean that Lebanon could move even faster toward political and economic crisis. Accordingly, the international community should respond to Hariri’s resignation with a coordinated plan aimed at two goals: ensuring the country’s stability, and confronting Hizballah to make sure it cannot use the void to its advantage. . . .
Supporting anti-Hizballah candidates or pushing to change the electoral law could both prove helpful. But elections are unlikely to be held on time unless the international community keeps the country from succumbing to chaos and ensures that the Iran-Saudi war does not escalate into armed clashes inside Lebanon. Political voids and chaos have only strengthened Hizballah and weakened the state since 2005, so they are hardly a recipe for countering the group today.
Read more on Washington Institute for Near East Policy: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/lebanons-prime-minister-resigns-whats-next