The anti-government protests that began in Iraq last month—in which Iraqi Shiites have been heard chanting “Iran out” and similar slogans to express their anger at Tehran’s growing influence in their country—have not abated, even as the numbers of casualties mount. Foremost in using violence on the demonstrators have been the Iran-backed militias that wield much power in the country. While the Islamic Republic has succeeded in repressing dissent in Lebanon, and seems close to defeating the uprising against Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Amir Taheri argues that Iraq will prove a tougher case:

To start with, Iraq shares Iran’s longest border—nearly 1,000 miles—a fact that poses major national-security concerns. Iraq is also home to the third-largest community of Shiite Muslims after Iran and India. Iranian-Arab tribes have kith and kin on the other side of the border belonging to virtually all the major tribes of southern Iraq. Kurds living on both sides of the border provide an additional human bond between the countries. The two neighbors also share huge reserves of oil, rivers, and the Shatt al-Arab, a major estuary for both.

Qassem Soleimani, [the general who manages most of Iran’s Middle Eastern adventures], cannot treat Iraq the way he has treated Lebanon and Syria. In Lebanon, he could appeal to sectarian sentiments by claiming that it is thanks to Tehran that Hizballah now controls virtually all aspects of government on behalf of the country’s largest religious sect. In Syria, he could ally himself with a determined minority ready to fight the majority to the end, convinced that defeat could mean total elimination. In Iraq, however, the majority sees itself as Iran’s rival for regional leadership. Even for Iraqi Shiites, it is [the Iraqi holy city of] Najaf, not Qom or Tehran [in Iran], that ought to be the beating heart of the faith.

To judge by noises made by Soleimani’s entourage and his apologists in the official media, the general may be contemplating a Syrian solution for Iraq. If he does take that path, he would be doomed to failure. Worse still, he might create a major threat to Iran’s national security, as setting a neighbor’s house on fire is never a risk-free enterprise.

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.