Iranian Escalation in Iraq Calls for a Firm Response https://mosaicmagazine.com/picks/politics-current-affairs/2020/01/iranian-escalation-in-iraq-calls-for-a-firm-response/

January 2, 2020 | Behnam Ben Taleblu
About the author:

Last week, an Iran-backed militia fired rockets at an American based in Iraq—the eleventh such attack in the past three months—killing an American contractor. Washington, at last, retaliated by striking five different targets belonging to Katai’b Hizballah, the most prominent of these militias, in both Iraq and Syria. In response, the group sent a well-organized mob to attack the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. Behnam Ben Taleblu points out that this is not a case of “nationalist backlash” against the American presence in the country, but an Iranian intimidation tactic. He adds:

For Washington’s strikes to create a deterrence dividend, Iran, as well as its proxies and partners, . . . need to see any U.S. show of force as a signal of resolve, rather than a one-off, which would in fact signal weakness and thus invite Tehran to escalate further. Washington therefore cannot shy away from using all elements of national power. By keeping hard power in reserve until the loss of an American life, the administration may have inadvertently signaled that the rest of Iran’s malign activities—so long as they don’t threaten Americans—will be treated as [of only secondary importance].

In just six months, Tehran went from damaging oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz to launching cruise missiles against what is arguably the most important oil installation on the planet. At no point was there any [U.S. military] retribution against a regime asset or interest—even indirectly, outside of Iranian territory. And because of that, at no point did Tehran look for an off-ramp.

In fact, the motive behind the crescendo of aggression by Iran is clear. The Trump administration’s overall approach is working. . . . Greatly akin to asphyxiation, the sanctions regime unlocked by Washington’s departure from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal has choked-off Iran’s revenues. . . . But like trying to choke an adversary in a fight, . . . the greater the asphyxiation, the more flagrant the hand-waving (in this context: regional and other escalation) and flailing.

This flailing, Taleblu concludes, must be met with a firm response, preferably military.

Read more on The Hill: https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/476352-tehran-is-trying-trumps-patience-in-iraq