With Syria, Russia, and Iran engaged in a major offensive to subdue the northwest Syrian city of Idlib and its environs, the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has increased his country’s support for the rebels there. He has recently requested that the U.S. supply his army with Patriot missiles to defend against Russian air power. Last year, however, Erdogan rejected an opportunity to receive Patriots, opting instead for the Russian-suppled S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, which has essentially made close military cooperation with the U.S. and NATO impossible. Bobby Ghosh considers America’s options:
[T]here is a strong possibility that [Erdogan’s] request is a ruse, and that the message is meant for Moscow, not Washington. Erdogan may be signaling to President Vladimir Putin that the new Turkish-Russian relationship is at peril over Idlib. The symbolism is hardly subtle. Erdogan’s decision . . . to buy Russian S-400 missile-defense systems instead of the Patriots offered by the U.S. marked Turkey’s turn away from its allies in NATO, and toward their adversary. He may now want Moscow to believe that Russia’s actions in Idlib could force Turkey back into the Western fold.
President Trump should set firm conditions for the Patriots. Turkey should mothball—ideally, return—the S-400 systems it has received, and agree not to order more. Erdogan should commit to peace talks with U.S.-allied Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria. And he should stop threatening to unleash waves of refugees on Europe. (For good measure, Trump should call on the Europeans to provide greater assistance to Turkey as the fighting in Idlib sends hundreds of thousands of refugees across the border.)
If Turkey’s request for Patriots is indeed a bluff, Erdogan will reject these demands. He must then lie in the bed he has made in Syria. But if he genuinely wants to bring Turkey back into the Western fold, in spirit as well as in theory, the price for readmission must be clearly posted at the entrance.
Read more on Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-02-21/trump-should-call-erdogan-s-bluff-on-patriot-missiles