While the attention of the West is seized by the epidemic, the political and military conflicts that consume so much of the Arab world aren’t slowing down. Moreover, argue Micky Aharonson and Aiman Mansour, the European response to the outbreak of COVID-19 has made the EU look incompetent, strengthening both Russian and Chinese efforts to expand their influence in the region:
China, which was the first and hardest-hit to date by the novel coronavirus, appears to have the leverage and vision which, by the end of the pandemic, may give it a more powerful role in the region than it has ever had before. Whereas the EU seems to have been a less reliable source of support for its member states, . . . China has delivered considerable humanitarian aid to Iran and Iraq, all 54 African countries, Italy, and Spain, and it continues to offer aid to additional countries. Therefore, China now constitutes a major center of gravity for medical and humanitarian aid, while Europe and the U.S. are retreating inwards.
This policy is a continuation of the one that China has been pursuing for years—preserving its relationship with Iran while at the same time taking steps to entrench its footprint in Iraq and expand its operations dealing with critical civilian infrastructure in the country.
The rumor spread by Chinese and Iranian officials (and unofficial Russian sources) that the coronavirus is an American biological weapon could lead to greater willingness on the part of publics in the Middle East to take violent action against the U.S. presence in the region. Growing public outrage on the Middle Eastern street about the way the virus has been dealt with, along with increasing economic challenges, is liable to threaten pro-Western regimes such as Saudi Arabia.
Nor has Iranian expansionism been stymied by the severe humanitarian crisis COVID-19 has caused there:
In Iraq . . . the coronavirus has not stopped the conflict within the state and the increasingly violent demonstrations against the U.S. from continuing to spread. [In fact], the protests in the Shiite street against U.S. military activity in the country have increased. The violent incidents this month, in which two American soldiers and a British soldier were killed, can be defined as the first attack by a new resistance group to the U.S. presence in Iraq, . . . most likely backed by Iran.
Read more on Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security: https://jiss.org.il/en/aharonson-mansour-will-coronavirus-be-a-moderating-factor-in-middle-east/