For much of its history, Lebanon has been riven by religious conflict, which caused a fifteen-year civil war. But now, argues Alberto Miguel Fernandez, poor governance and the threat of economic collapse and even famine pose greater problems for the small Mediterranean country than sectarian divisions:
Decades of living beyond its means, endemic corruption, and government incompetence are taking a deadly toll. Crooked politicians and lousy governance are not unique to Lebanon, but for the past few decades, this deplorable leadership has been joined first to Syrian hegemony and now to Hizballah. It is hard to “throw the bums out” when there is a heavily armed and ruthless outside player ensuring that they stay in.
The damage being done to Lebanon’s future, to its historic role as a refuge for religious minorities—including the Christians of the Levant—to the idea of Lebanon as a unique place of convergence and relative openness and tolerance, is nothing new. The decline has been going on for decades, but it is accelerating at warp speed in the coming months with terrifying power. Lebanon will need billions of dollars, which can only come from the West and from international financial institutions, to bail it out.
If it continues along the path its rulers are setting for it, Lebanon’s future is to become a somewhat larger version of Gaza, but with mountains and a few more token Christians.
A far less likely scenario would have the international community (in Lebanon that really means the U.S. and France) play a more aggressive and pointed ground game . . . against Hizballah and Iranian hegemony and its willing stooges in government. Such an approach requires a clear vision and a single-minded focus on our desired outcome. . . . [The] institution-building in Lebanon that should be done is not in the government but outside of it. . . . This means support for civil society strongly opposed to the pro-Hizballah status quo. . . . Such a [policy] should include coercive but targeted measures against Hizballah’s enablers.
Read more on MEMRI: https://www.memri.org/reports/time-le-petit-liban