The conquest of much of Iraq by Islamic State (IS) had a devastating effect on the country’s Christian population, most of whom identify as Assyrians. While the survivors have managed to rebuild some of their communities, many are now threatened by the Iran-backed militias that have increasingly exercised power in the country. Uzay Bulut reports:

The Nineveh Plain is considered the ancient Assyrian heartland and is the only region in Iraq where the largest demographic group is Christian. Assyrians there even have their own security force, the Nineveh Plain Protection Units. Most of the Nineveh plain is currently divided between the Shiite militia and the Sunni Kurdish Peshmerga.

Ashur Sargon Eskrya, the president of the Assyrian Aid Society of Iraq, [states] that Assyrians and other religious minorities such as the Yazidis, caught in the middle of these forces, have faced both physical violence and political marginalization. “The demographic and cultural structure of the Nineveh Plains continues to change changing due to increased Iranian domination, the ongoing presence of IS, and the competing tensions between the central government of Iraq and the Kurdish Regional Government,” he said.

Bulut goes on to cite the analysis of Juliana Taimoorazy, a prominent Iraqi Christian activist:

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s reach through its Shiite militia in the Nineveh Plain has severely affected the Christians of Iraq: this is one of the main reasons why Christians in the post-IS era are not returning to their homes. And let us not forget that [the Iranian] general Qassem Suleimani’s strategy of dismantling IS as an institution was part of a larger Islamic Republic expansionist scheme to create a Shiite crescent [extending] all the way to the Mediterranean. It intended to use the Nineveh Plain as a corridor to the West.

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.