Since 2013, a major plank of Beijing’s foreign policy has been the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to create a network of highways, railways, fuel pipelines, ports, and improved border crossings that would facilitate trade between China and the rest of Asia and, in turn, connect Asia to Europe and the Horn of Africa. The Middle East, by virtue of its location and its richness in fossil fuels, plays a key role in the initiative. But the COVID-19 epidemic has left many governments wary of entanglement with China, out of concern over both further public-health problems and American pressure. Mordechai Chaziza analyzes the possible consequences:
In the first months of the outbreak, the Middle East rapidly became the second-most hard-hit region after China. Every Middle Eastern country has had confirmed cases. . . . The great fear is that COVID-19 will continue to spread in the Middle East and cause Belt and Road infrastructure projects to come to a halt. Beijing has repatriated citizens working in Iran due to the spread of the virus, a measure it could apply to any severely afflicted BRI host country in the Middle East. Most countries in the region have placed entry restrictions on Chinese citizens or individuals traveling from China. The longer Chinese workers are unable to return to projects overseas, the longer BRI projects will languish, and some may be abandoned altogether.
BRI projects are also predominantly reliant on Chinese rather than local materials and supplies, and the coronavirus outbreak has hampered China’s manufacturing supply chains. . . . These and other disruptions are causing delays, missed deadlines, and increased costs of infrastructure construction—damage local economies will find difficult to absorb. COVID-19 will not be fatal to the implementation of BRI projects, but its fast and lethal spread will cause Middle Eastern governments to rethink the risks attached to ever more integration and economic dependence on China’s infrastructure-based development strategy.
Yet, in the long-term, Beijing could emerge from the crisis with its position improved:
Given China’s economic weight and position in the global supply chain, as well as its status as a leading trading partner for the Middle East and role as the world’s largest oil importer and consumer, Middle Eastern states need China to return to normality as quickly as possible. It is thus hardly surprising that an effect of the coronavirus outbreak has been to foster comradeship and partnership between Beijing and Middle Eastern states as they combat a common enemy.
Once COVID-19 has been brought under control, countries still struggling to rebound from the related economic shocks could use the outbreak as an excuse to abandon unsuccessful or politically unpopular projects with China. Conversely, Beijing may find new opportunities to expand its footprint in countries seeking to foster economic development.
Read more on BESA Center: https://besacenter.org/mideast-security-and-policy-studies/coronavirus-china-middle-east/