Shortly after the fall of Saddam Hussein to American-led forces, Tehran began expanding its influence into Iraq and carrying out attacks on U.S. forces there. The war against Islamic State a decade later allowed the mullahs to create the “popular mobilization forces” (PMF)—a network of Iraqi Shiite militias operating in tandem with, but independently from, the Iraqi military—which of late have been firing rockets at American bases. By simultaneously cultivating influence in the Iraqi government, Iran has managed to make the country part of its “land bridge” connecting it, via Syria and Lebanon, to the Mediterranean and to Israel’s borders. Yaron Schneider explores the possibility that Baghdad’s new prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, will bring change:

[F]ollowing [Khadhimi’s] taking office, several senior officials believed to be responsible for the violent suppression of the mass demonstrations that began in October 2019—in response to Iraq’s deteriorating economic situation and in protest against government corruption and Iranian penetration of the country—were replaced. In recent days, the Iraqi media have reported the dismissal of Falah al-Fayyad, the head of the Iraq National Security Council, who was also the director of the PMF, and was known for his close ties to the Iranian regime.

In late June, in an operation widely covered by the media, several operatives of Kata’ib Hizballah [the foremost pro-Iranian militia], were arrested by Iraqi anti-terrorism forces, apparently in the wake of intelligence information received from the Americans about the preparation of rocket barrages aimed at the embassy compound. But most of those arrested were released after a few days.

It is too early to say whether Kadhimi and the security agencies under his command are planning a confrontation with the pro-Iranian militias, which is liable to escalate because of both side’s determination to establish facts on the ground. It is likely that so far as the Iraqi prime minister in concerned, this is not a zero-sum game; it is mainly an attempt to set red lines for the militias and to allow them to continue operating under the government’s restrictions.

Kadhimi’s success in reining in the activity of the Shiite militias and the results of the dialogue between Iraq and the United States [about these efforts] will have a direct effect on Israel’s interests, especially Baghdad agrees to commit to increasing its control over its borders and thwarting cross-border terrorist activity.

Analyzing the recent direct Iranian attack on Israel, and Israel’s security situation more generally, Michael Oren looks to the 2015 agreement to restrain Iran’s nuclear program. That, and President Biden’s efforts to resurrect the deal after Donald Trump left it, are in his view the source of the current crisis:

Of the original motivations for the deal—blocking Iran’s path to the bomb and transforming Iran into a peaceful nation—neither remained. All Biden was left with was the ability to kick the can down the road and to uphold Barack Obama’s singular foreign-policy achievement.

In order to achieve that result, the administration has repeatedly refused to punish Iran for its malign actions:

Historians will survey this inexplicable record and wonder how the United States not only allowed Iran repeatedly to assault its citizens, soldiers, and allies but consistently rewarded it for doing so. They may well conclude that in a desperate effort to avoid getting dragged into a regional Middle Eastern war, the U.S. might well have precipitated one.

While America’s friends in the Middle East, especially Israel, have every reason to feel grateful for the vital assistance they received in intercepting Iran’s missile and drone onslaught, they might also ask what the U.S. can now do differently to deter Iran from further aggression. . . . Tehran will see this weekend’s direct attack on Israel as a victory—their own—for their ability to continue threatening Israel and destabilizing the Middle East with impunity.

Israel, of course, must respond differently. Our target cannot simply be the Iranian proxies that surround our country and that have waged war on us since October 7, but, as the Saudis call it, “the head of the snake.”