On Sunday, the IDF killed four guerrillas attempting to plant explosives near one of its observation posts along the border with Syria. The next night, Israeli aircraft retaliated by striking several Syrian military targets. The exchange was one of several in the past two weeks, as Iran-backed militias, Hizballah foremost among them, have been trying to exact revenge on the Jewish state for killing one of their operatives. Meanwhile a large explosion—apparently not caused by Israel—shook Beirut. Benny Avni writes:

Beirut’s mid-20th century reputation as “Paris of the Mideast” is long forgotten. . . . Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his cronies get rich while inflation is rampant, social services are non-existent, and few can afford basic necessities. Coronavirus casualties are on the rise. A mysterious, deadly mega-explosion Tuesday at the Beirut port added to the feeling that no one is in charge. Worse: Lebanon has long been [controlled] by the Iranian puppet organization Hizballah, the country’s true power and the only decider on national security matters.

Hizballah gradually took over after its last all-out war with Israel, in 2006. Hassan Nasrallah, the terror organization’s long-time chief, [implicitly] admitted afterwards he wouldn’t have started that losing battle. Yet he managed to convince the entire Arab world he’d won it. That rhetorical victory, and some ruthless maneuvering, including deadly attacks on top political rivals, made him Lebanon’s most powerful political player.

[Today] Nasrallah intends to deliver a speech about the organization’s next moves. He may eye August 7, when a United Nations-mandated tribunal is expected to issue a final verdict on the 2004 assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister and father of the current one. The tribunal has named only four suspects, all Hizballah members.

Nasrallah may be tempted to direct the attention elsewhere—in speech, and perhaps in deed, in the form of raising border tensions, as well. If Hizballah launches a rocket attack [against Israel], the entire country [will be in its] rocket range. . . . Yet, if past is prologue, the worst pain will surely be inflicted on the Lebanese people.

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.