If Joe Biden wins the presidency in November, it is likely that his administration will try to negotiate an updated version of the 2015 nuclear agreement with the Islamic Republic. Despite this possibility, there is still much that the current administration can do now to increase pressure on the ayatollahs. Jacob Nagel and Mark Dubowitz write:
For starters, the administration should swiftly blacklist the Islamic Republic’s entire financial sector, thereby expelling the remaining thirteen Iranian banks from the SWIFT financial messaging system. . . . The administration should also [fill other] gaps in the U.S. sanctions regime. This should include more sanctions targeting the regime’s support for terrorism, its ballistic-missile program, and its human-rights abuses and corruption.
Republicans should also make clear, through the passage of a congressional resolution, that the lifting of sanctions by a Biden administration would be temporary and that such a move does not change the market’s views of Tehran’s illicit conduct. International companies should expect to lose their investments in Iran if Republicans retake power in four years and reinstate all sanctions.
Moreover, the effects of such sanctions would improve Washington’s bargaining position if any president were to reopen nuclear negotiations. Nagel and Dubowitz also urge a possible future Democratic White House to avoid repeating the mistakes of the 2015 agreement:
First, the U.S. should reinforce the efforts of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), [which in turn] should continue its demand for full Iranian compliance with existing agreements, including the one agreed to last week that gave the agency visitation rights at two sites where the Iranians allegedly concealed illicit nuclear activities in violation of their Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations.
While the IAEA pursues its mandate, the intelligence services of the U.S., Israel, and other Western powers should continue clandestine efforts to stop Iran’s illegal nuclear program and terrorist activities. . . . The U.S., Israel, and others possibly involved should continue to hit Iranian nuclear facilities and missile and military infrastructure, as well as Iranian and proxy forces in the region. The Obama administration made the mistake of tying the hands of U.S. and foreign intelligence services. That’s leverage Washington must use against Tehran.
Read more on FDD: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/08/31/confronting-iran-before-the-november-election/