To one extent or another, the president-elect can be expected to return to the foreign-policy priorities of Barack Obama. But much is different about the Middle East since Joe Biden was vice-president. Vivian Bercovici writes:
Biden and his team have been very clear regarding their intentions to “reopen” the [2015 nuclear deal] for renewed American leadership and participation pending Iranian compliance with its terms. The incoming administration has also telegraphed a desire to support the realization of a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians. Each of those sweeping positions is code for a radical realignment of Mideast geopolitical policy from the Trump years; basically, reverting to the so-called “Obama doctrine,” which was far from a raging success in its eight-year lifespan.
Biden enters the White House at a time when the strategic and commercial alliances in the Middle East have been utterly transformed from what they were four years ago. Among his earliest tests will be whether he understands the gravity and irreversibility of this change. Obama turned his back on traditional U.S. allies in the region, causing a deep mistrust to set in and harden. Biden cannot just walk back into the room and flick the switch.
The centrality of Palestinian statehood to Middle Eastern reality was the foundation of Obama’s approach to the region. That “reality” no longer exists. The Gulf states have made clear that they recognize a permanent Israeli presence in the region and urge the Palestinians to do so, too. Without fresh eyes and policies, Biden risks the humiliation of a very downgraded relevancy in the region. The same old same old just won’t cut it.
Read more on Commentary: https://www.commentarymagazine.com/vivian-bercovici/can-biden-see-whats-at-stake-in-the-middle-east/