As the Biden administration considers how it can revive the 2015 agreement to restrain the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, those who favor such a move will no doubt argue that Washington can use its position to bolster the “moderates” in Tehran while undermining the “hardliners” who oppose any sort of deal-making. With Iran planning a presidential election in June, the reasoning goes, a conciliatory American stance would help ensure the victory of a moderate. Such a strategy, however, is based on a fantastical view of the Iranian political system, as Jason M. Brodsky explains:
Would-be negotiators in Washington should recognize that whatever the goals of a Biden-led deal might be, empowering moderates is unlikely to succeed. The regime has already seen to it that they are sidelined in the most sensitive state organs.
The United States must understand the limitations of its power in trying to influence a system that is built on anti-Americanism. The ideological successors of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are entrenched. Rushing to rejoin the [nuclear deal] before Iran’s next presidential election won’t change that dynamic, as it’s the supreme leader and not the president who has the final word on foreign-policy decision-making. The mythical moderates just don’t occupy the positions that matter.
Read more on New York Daily News: https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-the-folly-of-trying-to-empower-irans-moderates-20210125-7dutwii66zczzoatp2qnq2k2wq-story.html