The last time elections were held for the Palestinian Legislative Council—the Palestinian Authority’s parliament—was 2016, and the result was a victory for Hamas. A brief civil war subsequently broke out in the Gaza Strip between Hamas and its rival Fatah, leading to Hamas’s control of the territory. Recently, the Palestinian Authority (PA), which remains under Fatah’s control, set a date for new elections in May. Michael Milstein analyzes whether they will happen, and the possible results:
Today, the Palestinians find themselves at the closest point to holding an election since 2006, arriving here after a decade and half of repeated failures in efforts at internal reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. [But the chances] that this election will really take place remains foggy. And even if it does happen, there is the growing sense that it would redound more to the reputation of Hamas than that of Fatah. As such, the prospect of an election will probably face new challenges and even threats from the PA, Israel, and to a great extent the moderate Arab camp and the West as well.
Therefore, looking ahead, it is already vital to establish close consultation and coordination regarding this election among all of the following: Israel, the PA, the main Arab actors—especially Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—and the international community, with the United States in the lead. Without this concerted effort, we are all likely to witness a replay of the 2006 election, a process that will dramatically alter the very nature of Palestinian affairs by weakening the nationalist trend and strengthening the Islamist one under the leadership of Hamas.
The best, most urgent way to avoid repeating that tragic mistake today would be . . . to stipulate that Hamas could participate in the election only after it convincingly accepts the conditions previously agreed to by Israel, the PA, the United States, . . . Russia, the EU, and the UN. That means recognizing Israel, renouncing violence, and accepting all previous Palestinian-Israeli political agreements. And if Hamas continues to refuse, then it must bear the onus of aborting the first Palestinian election in fifteen years.
Read more on Washington Institute for Near East Policy: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/palestinian-elections-how-real-and-what-results