On Saturday, the Chinese foreign minister came to Tehran to sign a major trade and investment agreement. Although the text has not been made public, it purportedly involves Beijing funneling $400 billion into the Islamic Republic over the next 25 years. Elliott Abrams carefully outlines why he believes this figure to be exaggerated, perhaps wildly. Nonetheless, he writes, the deal will have real consequences—and also reveals something about Iran’s current circumstances:
One has to assume that Iran will sell more and more oil to China, defying and undermining U.S. sanctions. And one should also assume that China will increase its investments in Iran, in many sectors of the economy. Among other harmful effects, we should consider how this will affect China’s willingness to discipline Iran in the International Atomic Energy Agency for its continuing violations of the [2015 nuclear deal] and the Non-Proliferation Treaty—violations that bring Iran closer to being able to create a deliverable nuclear weapon.
Finally, one has to wonder about the prospects of Iran selling “heavily discounted” oil to China as its end of the deal, as is suggested in the New York Times report. The regime of the ayatollahs claims that Iran seeks independence and [self-reliance], comparing its firmness on this subject with the supposed weakness of the shah. But suppose this deal with China came true. Then Iran would be selling oil cheaply to China, and China would be buying up the whole country. Remember: the maximum amount ever invested in Iran in one year was $5 billion, and under this supposed deal China alone would be investing three times that amount annually for 25 years. At the end of that period, Iran would be a wholly owned subsidiary of China, basically a gas station for the People’s Republic.
Skepticism about all the numbers is very much in order. And for Iranians, information about what has been agreed should be the key goal. Either the amounts are ridiculous and are mostly propaganda designed to boost both the Chinese and Iranian regimes. Or if the amounts are accurate, the regime, suffering under U.S. sanctions, is selling the country to China.
Read more on National Review: https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/03/is-iran-being-turned-into-a-chinese-gas-station/