In the throes of an economic and political crisis, Lebanon faces not only shortages of fuel and medicines, but even of food. While France, the U.S., the Gulf states, and other countries have shown a willingness to help, Hanin Ghaddar argues that their efforts will come to naught if they do not find a way to tackle the central problem:
While many actors in the national system deserve blame, the undoubted principal culprit—the country’s main decisionmaker and the most effective defender of the corrupt status quo—is Hizballah. For the “Party of God,” corruption is high policy. Through corruption, Hizballah weakens state institutions and builds allegiance in Lebanese communities to its political bloc and sect rather than to the state. . . . Transforming citizens into dependent followers loyal to sectarian leaders works perfectly well for Hizballah, allowing the group both to claim total control of the Shiite community and to form alliances with other Lebanese sects and groups.
Hizballah did not devise this strategy on its own, of course—corruption as a tool for holding political power has been nurtured by Iran, Hizballah’s sponsor, in all the countries where it has proxies.
Solving these problems, Ghaddar explains, will take more than the aid money the West will offer, or the financial, monetary, and governmental reforms that it will demand:
Even if outside actors manage to impose their will on Lebanon and compel some reforms and elections, the fundamentals in the country are unlikely to change, because Hizballah has a plan for that, too. As the most powerful organization in the country—far better armed than the Lebanese Armed Forces—Hizballah is ready to protect by military might what it has preserved through a corrupt political system. This is precisely what Hizballah did when it lost the 2005 and 2009 parliamentary elections. . . . By brandishing its weapons, it defined a new “win or lose” political reality: when Hezbollah wins, it governs; when it loses, it still governs.
With Hizballah’s guns trained on the Lebanese people, efforts to promote democracy, elections, or reforms will always hit a wall.
Yet, as Ghaddar explains in the rest of her essay, Hizballah has many weaknesses, and Washington can exploit them.
Read more on Washington Institute for Near East Policy: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/strategy-contain-hezbollah-ideas-and-recommendations