With a third consecutive American administration in place that promises less involvement in the Middle East, and a more specific sense that its decades-long alliance with the U.S. is unraveling, Saudi Arabia finds itself at a geostrategic crossroads. To make matters worse, the Iran-backed Houthi insurgency in Yemen poses a very direct threat to the kingdom. Mohammed Alyahya and Bernard Haykel examine Riyadh’s response to these and additional circumstances. Among other topics, they address what they agree is the foolishness of the American belief—articulated by both the current president and his two immediate predecessors—that supporting its Middle Eastern allies is somehow at odds with combatting Chinese aggression. As Alyahya puts it, “the current administration’s idea is to free up resources from the Middle East in order to counter China, . . . and I think the idea in China is to allocate more resources to the Middle East in order to compete with the U.S.” (Moderated by Michael Doran. Video, 80 minutes.)

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.