Despite the Biden administration’s promises both to return to the 2015 multilateral agreement to limit the Islamic Republic’s nuclear-weapons program, and to turn it into a “longer and stronger deal,” the past year has shown little evidence of progress. Talks have stopped and started, but the parties are no closer to an agreement than when they began, and all the while Tehran is moving closer to producing an atomic bomb. Jake Wallis Simons writes:
The talks began with a spectacular American misstep. As soon as the starting gun was fired, U.S. negotiators amazed international partners by [presenting] a proposal that was so generous that the Iranians had to rub their eyes to believe it. In the minds of the Americans, this was a take-it-or-leave-it offer, straight out of the box. But it did not come across that way to Tehran.
Once the Iranians had caught their breath and climbed back onto their chairs, they set about demanding further concessions, in the belief that this was only the U.S. opening position. The Americans continued to insist that this was a one-time offer—but crucially failed to back this up by walking away from the table or putting forward punishing consequences. So the Iranians kept on demanding. This resulted in what can only be described by the Hebrew term balagan, [a chaotic mess], as any real sense of pressure and jeopardy dissolved.
On the British side, things are more coherent. Despite some disagreements, London’s stance is firmer. This has led to the unexpected state of affairs in which Britain is more sympathetic to the Israelis than America. As a result, Jerusalem is expending particular effort in lobbying London to save the U.S. from itself.
It is hard to avoid the conclusion that 2022 will be Iran’s year. The ayatollahs have already eased the effects of Western sanctions by pivoting economically to China and Russia, and are picking off Gulf states one-by-one. Despite an alliance with Israel, the UAE is now Iran’s second-largest oil customer. Only the Saudis continue to hold entirely firm against Iranian influence.
Read more on Spectator: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/inside-joe-biden-s-disastrous-negotiations-with-iran