NATO has found a renewed sense of purpose in the face of Russian aggression. But as Jeremy Shapiro notes, the outbreak of war in Ukraine is “a failure in and of itself,” since “NATO exists above all to deter war in the region.” He traces other consequences of the failures of both NATO and the Biden administration, particularly the ways in which they exacerbate the threat that China poses to the West.

Russia’s war has done . . . grievous damage to the Biden administration’s overarching foreign-policy framework. President Joe Biden had hoped to put Russia policy on a “stable and predictable” footing—by which he meant he wanted to focus on China. Recognizing that the China challenge required nearly the full measure of U.S. resources, the administration had intended to use its political capital with European allies to get them on board with its Indo-Pacific policy.

That policy has now nearly completely collapsed, but China and the threat that it poses has not disappeared. It may seem that NATO is newly relevant as a deterrent to Russia—its original purpose—but its response cannot be simply be to return to its cold-war posture. The world has moved on even if Russia has not. Despite the war in Ukraine, China is still America’s—and thus NATO’s—most pressing problem.

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.