On July 11, the American national security advisor Jake Sullivan announced that the Islamic Republic intends to supply Russia with unmanned aerial vehicles. These would likely include the sort of “suicide drones” Iran used to attack Saudi oil facilities in 2019, and could mount a difficult challenge to Ukrainian air defenses. Meanwhile Vladimir Putin plans to visit the Middle East, including Tehran, in the coming days. Ron Ben-Yishai comments:

Even if the UAV deal between Iran and Russia doesn’t go through, this marks a dramatic shift in Iran’s stance as it turns into a direct threat to NATO countries and the EU. . . . Tehran has taken an active part in the global confrontation in favor of the Russia-China bloc.

This confirms what Israel has been claiming for years: Iran is not only aspiring for regional hegemony but also to become a significant actor on the world stage. This is why it develops long-range missiles and drones that can reach Israel, Europe, and maybe even North America.

The Russians’ acceptance of Iranian aid may also affect their approach toward Israeli activities in Syria against Iranian entrenchment. This may even be a Russian declaration they are taking Iran’s side, which could restrict Israel’s freedom of action in Syrian and Lebanese airspace.

Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Defense Minister Benny Gantz now have a very good reason to ask Biden for offensive weapon systems that could help Israel and its allies in the Middle East protect themselves against a nuclear Iran as well as against the drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles the Islamic Republic is churning out at breakneck speed.

On Tuesday, a Hizballah drone attack injured three people in northern Israel. The next day, another attack, targeting an IDF base, injured eighteen people, six of them seriously, in Arab al-Amshe, also in the north. This second attack involved the simultaneous use of drones carrying explosives and guided antitank missiles. In both cases, the defensive systems that performed so successfully last weekend failed to stop the drones and missiles. Ron Ben-Yishai has a straightforward explanation as to why: the Lebanon-backed terrorist group is getting better at evading Israel defenses. He explains the three basis systems used to pilot these unmanned aircraft, and their practical effects:

These systems allow drones to act similarly to fighter jets, using “dead zones”—areas not visible to radar or other optical detection—to approach targets. They fly low initially, then ascend just before crashing and detonating on the target. The terrain of southern Lebanon is particularly conducive to such attacks.

But this requires skills that the terror group has honed over months of fighting against Israel. The latest attacks involved a large drone capable of carrying over 50 kg (110 lbs.) of explosives. The terrorists have likely analyzed Israel’s alert and interception systems, recognizing that shooting down their drones requires early detection to allow sufficient time for launching interceptors.

The IDF tries to detect any incoming drones on its radar, as it had done prior to the war. Despite Hizballah’s learning curve, the IDF’s technological edge offers an advantage. However, the military must recognize that any measure it takes is quickly observed and analyzed, and even the most effective defenses can be incomplete. The terrain near the Lebanon-Israel border continues to pose a challenge, necessitating technological solutions and significant financial investment.