In an interview last week, the Mossad director David Barnea told Israeli reporters that the nuclear deal the U.S. appears close to concluding with the Islamic Republic is “based on lies.” Richard Kemp explains why the agreement, a renewed version of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), cannot accomplish what it purports to do:

The reality that the optimistic and the unschooled fail to grasp is that the regime in Tehran will ignore constraints imposed by the deal that it does not like. That is what it did with the original JCPOA and its other international undertakings, including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that it has frequently breached, as confirmed again earlier this year by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Tehran will continue to develop the nuclear capability that it sees as its right—deal or no deal—at the speed it wants until it is physically stopped from doing so. Whatever shape Biden’s deal takes, there are only downsides for the West and the Middle East and only upsides for Tehran. Signing the deal will give Iran renewed legitimacy. . . . More than that, according to Israel’s Prime Minister Yair Lapid, Tehran will receive $100 billion a year as a result of lifted sanctions.

Those dollars will enable Iran to speed up its nuclear program, including development of ballistic missiles capable of launching nuclear warheads not just across the Middle East but also to Europe and the U.S. Those dollars will boost Iran’s regional aggression, threatening Saudi Arabia and the UAE from Yemen, threatening Israel from Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, and threatening the U.S., Europe, and the world with its global network of terrorist proxies and followers. This violent malignity, which will shift into overdrive with a massive cash injection, was most recently exhibited by Tehran’s proxies in Gaza launching thousands of missiles at Israel in August, by rocket attacks in Syria that wounded U.S. servicemen just a few days ago, by the attempt to murder Salman Rushdie in the U.S., and by recently revealed Iranian assassination plots against former members of the Trump administration. All that while dictating terms at the negotiating table.

For more than a year, the Iran-backed Houthis have been launching drones and missiles at ships traversing the Red Sea, as well as at Israeli territory, in support of Hamas. This development has drastically curtailed shipping through the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, driving up trade prices. This week, the Trump administration began an extensive bombing campaign against the Houthis in an effort to reopen that crucial waterway. Burcu Ozcelik highlights another benefit of this action:

The administration has a broader geopolitical agenda—one that includes countering China’s economic leverage, particularly Beijing’s reliance on Iranian oil. By targeting the Houthis, the United States is not only safeguarding vital shipping lanes but also exerting pressure on the Iran-China energy nexus, a key component of Beijing’s strategic posture in the region.

China was the primary destination for up to 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports in 2024, underscoring the deepening economic ties between Beijing and Tehran despite U.S. sanctions. By helping fill Iranian coffers, China aids Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in financing proxies like the Houthis. Since October of last year, notable U.S. Treasury announcements have revealed covert links between China and the Houthis.

Striking the Houthis could trigger broader repercussions—not least by disrupting the flow of Iranian oil to China. While difficult to confirm, it is conceivable and has been reported, that the Houthis may have received financial or other forms of compensation from China (such as Chinese-made military components) in exchange for allowing freedom of passage for China-affiliated vessels in the Red Sea.