The recent decision taken by the OPEC+ cartel, with the full support of Saudi Arabia, to raise the price of oil has further exacerbated the growing rift between the Washington and Riyadh, and left many in the U.S.—especially those aligned with the Democratic party—furious. But, as Hussein Ibish explains, the reasons behind the kingdom’s decision have much to do with its economic agenda for the coming decades, and little to do with the priorities of its American critics:
The U.S. perception is that Saudi Arabia [has] sided with Moscow, given that high oil prices will strengthen the Russian economy against sanctions. The Saudis have also stumbled into U.S. domestic politics. Democrats in general have a negative view of Saudi Arabia, . . . partly rooted in the perception that the Saudis are aligned with Republicans, especially former President Donald Trump. They assume Riyadh is attempting to put its thumb on the scale to help Republicans in next month’s congressional elections and even set the stage for a Trump comeback.
The Saudis weren’t thinking about Ukraine—like many people in Asia and Africa, they don’t think in absolute terms of being pro- or anti-Russian—although that was certainly shortsighted. And it’s frankly narcissistic for Democrats to imagine that the Saudis are adjusting their national grand strategy around the upcoming midterm vote. Once the Trump administration declined to respond to the devastating Iranian drone and missile attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in September 2019, any lingering sense that Republicans were the answer for Saudi concerns evaporated.
But the countries do still need each other. Only the U.S. can provide Saudi Arabia the security it requires. And the Saudis are the only plausible regional partner for the still-strategically crucial U.S. dominance in the waterways of the Persian Gulf, which constitutes one of Washington’s most potent forms of leverage over rivals like China.
After tempers cool, the U.S. needs to formulate a new security commitment to Gulf Arab states, including Saudi Arabia. This would effectively update the 1979 Carter doctrine—a pledge to rebuff any nation that attempts to dominate the Gulf by force—and respond to contemporary threats like the 2019 missile attacks. And that agreement, of course, would be contingent on the Gulf Arabs renewing their commitment to U.S. interests and Washington’s global as well as regional strategies.
Read more on Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-15/democrats-can-t-let-opec-spat-derail-us-saudi-relationship