Following decreased American support and China-brokered détente with Iran, Saudi Arabia appears to ready to give up on its war against the Tehran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen. To this end, the Saudi ambassador to the country met with a Houthi leader last month. Oved Lobel ponders what will become of Yemen if Riyadh and its Arab allies decide to abandon it to Iranian proxies:
Much like the U.S. in its engagement with the Taliban, the Saudis have sidelined the Yemeni government and other Yemeni actors and are negotiating their withdrawal directly with the Houthis and [Tehran]. Among the range of possible outcomes, all bad, the least bad would be if the conflict were to be frozen indefinitely, with Saudi Arabia remaining militarily engaged to protect Marib and other areas loyal to the Yemeni government, and the Houthis inevitably launching missile and drone strikes but no new offensives to conquer territory.
But the most likely outcome, as in Afghanistan, is total Saudi disengagement from Yemen. . . . If the Saudis do unilaterally withdraw support for allies in Yemen, there are three potential scenarios for Yemen: Hizballah-ization, in which [Iran] pragmatically moves its local arm into politics—while retaining separate security forces and ultimate control—within the façade of a state; partition, in which the Houthis quickly conquer all areas held by the Yemeni government but at least temporarily do not attempt to conquer areas controlled by the United Arab Emirates’ proxies in the South; and Talibanization, in which the Houthis move to conquer the entire country immediately.
[W]hat is not in doubt . . . is that, for both Houthi leaders and their Iranian commanders, jihad is non-negotiable—particularly after they have begun to taste victory.
Read more on Fresh Air: https://aijac.org.au/fresh-air/yemens-future-partition-hezbollisation-or-talibanisation/