On Monday, armed men attacked a Shiite mosque in Oman, killing six and wounding dozens more. After the attack, Islamic State (IS) took credit; the Pentagon told reporters the next day that the terrorist group claimed responsibility for 153 attacks in Iraq and Syria during the first half of 2024, more than it carried out in those countries in all of the previous year. Further afield, IS has carried out major attacks in Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Niger, while police and security services have thwarted several planned attacks in Europe. Aaron Zelin argues that these activities are not the work of disparate branches all bearing the same brand name, but part of something better coordinated:
Islamic State today looks different than it did five years ago and is far more integrated now as an organization among its global network than al-Qaeda ever was. It has been ten years since Islamic State announced itself as a caliphate and more than five years since it lost its last vestige of territory in Syria. However, . . . there is a fundamental misunderstanding of how the group operates today.
The most important body for understanding Islamic State today is its General Directorate of Provinces, which has previously been based in Syria, but new information suggests that at least at the highest levels of it might now [be centered] in Somalia.
The directorate, Zelin explains, plans and manages operations taking place from Somalia to Afghanistan and beyond. In other words, the increase in attacks suggests “an assault coordinated via its General Directorate of Provinces.”