After the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a May helicopter crash, Iran’s voters have elected a successor. Among the relatively narrow band of candidates authorized by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, the cardiac surgeon and politician Masoud Pezeshkian is a relative moderate. Yet, Lazar Berman reminds us, little is likely to change for both the citizens of Iran or, especially, Iran’s activities outside its borders. Why? Pezeshkian “has limited influence over foreign policy. On Iran’s policies across the Middle East, Pezeshkian is simply not a player. Those decisions are made by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, which is answerable to Khamenei.”

Besides,

even if he could affect Iran’s posture toward Israel, Pezeshkian falls firmly within the regime consensus. “The Islamic Republic has always supported the resistance of the people of the region against the illegitimate Zionist regime,” Pezeshkian said Monday in a message to Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah terror group currently fighting Israel.

As for Iranians themselves, Berman quotes Raz Zimmt, Iran scholar at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, who says that “The vast majority of the public does not believe in the regime, and doesn’t believe in the possibility of effecting meaningful change under this regime.”

On Monday night, the IDF struck a group of Hamas operatives near the Nasser hospital in Khan Yunis, the main city in southern Gaza. The very fact of this attack was reassuring, as it suggested that the release of Edan Alexander didn’t come with restraints on Israeli military activity. Then, yesterday afternoon, Israeli jets carried out another, larger attack on Khan Yunis, hitting a site where it believed Mohammad Sinwar, the head of Hamas in Gaza, to be hiding. The IDF has not yet confirmed that he was present. There is some hope that the death of Sinwar—who replaced his older brother Yahya after he was killed last year—could have a debilitating effect on Hamas.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is visiting the Persian Gulf, and it’s unclear how his diplomatic efforts there will affect Israel, its war with Hamas, and Iran. For its part, Jerusalem has committed to resume full-scale operations in Gaza after President Trump returns to the U.S. But, Gabi Simoni and Erez Winner explain, Israel does not have unlimited time to defeat Hamas:

Israel faces persistent security challenges across multiple fronts—Iran, the West Bank, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon—all demanding significant military resources, especially during periods of escalation. . . . Failing to achieve a decisive victory not only prolongs the conflict but also drains national resources and threatens Israel’s ability to obtain its strategic goals.

Only a swift, forceful military campaign can achieve the war’s objectives: securing the hostages’ release, ensuring Israeli citizens’ safety, and preventing future kidnappings. Avoiding such action won’t just prolong the suffering of the hostages and deepen public uncertainty—it will also drain national resources and weaken Israel’s standing in the region and beyond.

We recommend launching an intense military operation in Gaza without delay, with clear, measurable objectives—crippling Hamas’s military and governance capabilities and securing the release of hostages. Such a campaign should combine military pressure with indirect negotiations, maximizing the chances of a successful outcome while minimizing risks.

Crucially, the operation must be closely coordinated with the United States and moderate Arab states to reduce international pressure and preserve the gains of regional alliances.