In 2023, the U.S. birthrate sank to 1.62 babies per woman, the lowest on record, after fifteen years of steady decline. Timothy Carney is skeptical of efforts at the national level to increase fertility rates; instead he turns to the evidence from such exceptionally fertile communities as Orthodox Jews and Mormons, and the influence they have on their neighbors:

The economist Natalie Gochnour from the University of Utah . . . says the Catholics in Utah have a higher birthrate than the Catholics in any other state. “It’s in the air,” Gochnour says. If you look closely, you can see the vectors of this communicable condition.

Kemp Mill is a Maryland suburb of Washington, D.C., anchored by two Modern Orthodox synagogues. Kemp Mill looks very different from other neighborhoods in Montgomery County, not only because the residents eschew driving on Saturday but also because families of six, seven, or more are a common sight.

If you pass through Kemp Mill on a weekend or a summer afternoon, you will see little gangs of children roaming the neighborhood and this hints at the feedback effects. The more children roaming the streets, the easier it is for any individual parent to let his or her children roam the streets, which makes parenting easier and makes having a little platoon of your own more imaginable.

Also, the more neighbors and friends you have who have a toddler and a newborn, the easier it is to have a semblance of a social life while you have a toddler and a newborn. Coffees planned around naptime replace lengthy boozy brunches, and playground picnics replace dinners at fancy restaurants. On a larger scale, places with more children are more likely to accommodate children and their parents, culturally and physically.

Yesterday, the Iranian foreign minister flew to Geneva to meet with European diplomats. President Trump, meanwhile, indicated that cease-fire negotiations might soon begin with Iran, which would presumably involve Tehran agreeing to make concessions regarding its nuclear program, while Washington pressures Israel to halt its military activities. According to Israeli media, Iran already began putting out feelers to the U.S. earlier this week. Aviram Bellaishe considers the purpose of these overtures:

The regime’s request to return to negotiations stems from the principle of deception and delay that has guided it for decades. Iran wants to extricate itself from a situation of total destruction of its nuclear facilities. It understands that to save the nuclear program, it must stop at a point that would allow it to return to it in the shortest possible time. So long as the negotiation process leads to halting strikes on its military capabilities and preventing the destruction of the nuclear program, and enables the transfer of enriched uranium to a safe location, it can simultaneously create the two tracks in which it specializes—a false facade of negotiations alongside a hidden nuclear race.