Yesterday afternoon, news broke that Rabbi Aaron Teitelbaum, leader of one of the two main factions of the Satmar Hasidim, had reportedly endorsed President Trump. Perhaps more significantly, the rebbe—who has often backed Democrats and previously criticized “Trumpism”—also reportedly told his followers to vote for the incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan for Congress. It is these congressional elections where haredi voters might have real sway, explains Nicholas Fandos.

Where candidates spend precious campaign hours says a lot about who they believe may decide a race. And in the final weeks before Election Day, three of the most endangered congressmen keep showing up at the same places: the rapidly expanding ultra-Orthodox Jewish enclaves of New York’s Hudson Valley. The investment reflects just how important Jewish voters across the religious spectrum have become in races around New York this year, as war rages in the Middle East and rising anti-Semitism scrambles political alliances at home.

[I]n a hyper-polarized nation, ultra-Orthodox voters in particular have emerged as the rarest of swing voters. Not particularly partisan, they have fervently supported both the former President Donald J. Trump and Democratic politicians, often acting as a bloc. How they vote in November could tip several of the nation’s marquee House races—possibly in opposite directions.

“To go against the incumbent is like giving the guy a pink slip,” said Rabbi Moishe Indig, a Satmar leader based in Brooklyn. “In order to fire somebody, you’ve got to be bad.”

Old-fashioned politicking—meeting with rabbis and community leaders, visiting schools and events, showing up at local grocery stores—appears to have a real effect on this constituency. As one voter said of Mike Lawler, the candidate in another electoral district with a large haredi population: “He was the first politician from the Republican party who actually reached out to the Jewish community. . . . I think he’s switched a lot of minds in the community.”

For more than a year, the Iran-backed Houthis have been launching drones and missiles at ships traversing the Red Sea, as well as at Israeli territory, in support of Hamas. This development has drastically curtailed shipping through the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, driving up trade prices. This week, the Trump administration began an extensive bombing campaign against the Houthis in an effort to reopen that crucial waterway. Burcu Ozcelik highlights another benefit of this action:

The administration has a broader geopolitical agenda—one that includes countering China’s economic leverage, particularly Beijing’s reliance on Iranian oil. By targeting the Houthis, the United States is not only safeguarding vital shipping lanes but also exerting pressure on the Iran-China energy nexus, a key component of Beijing’s strategic posture in the region.

China was the primary destination for up to 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports in 2024, underscoring the deepening economic ties between Beijing and Tehran despite U.S. sanctions. By helping fill Iranian coffers, China aids Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in financing proxies like the Houthis. Since October of last year, notable U.S. Treasury announcements have revealed covert links between China and the Houthis.

Striking the Houthis could trigger broader repercussions—not least by disrupting the flow of Iranian oil to China. While difficult to confirm, it is conceivable and has been reported, that the Houthis may have received financial or other forms of compensation from China (such as Chinese-made military components) in exchange for allowing freedom of passage for China-affiliated vessels in the Red Sea.